Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls: Incumbent DeWine likely to lose his primary

Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls: DeWine trails Renacci in primary polls, Whaley favored for Dem nomination

The 2022 Governor Election in Ohio is set to take place on November 8th, 2022. The seat is held by Mike DeWine. He is running for re-election after winning the race in 2018 by 3.7 points. Ohio has trended sharply DeWine is a veteran in Ohio politics representing a part of or the whole state in some capacity from 1983 to 2007 and then from 2011 to the present. He has been part of the US House, Lt. Governor, Senator, and state Attorney General before becoming Governor. Primaries to decide each party’s nominee will be held on May 3, 2022.

The general election is not expected to be competitive in the country –prognosticators like RCP, Cook Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race as “Likely Republican” making the Republican the prohibitive favorite for the election. However, the primaries are much more interesting and DeWine remains vulnerable to a challenger to his right as he has not been as pro-Trump as the GOP had hoped.

Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls: Candidates in the primaries


A. Republican Primary

  • Joe Blystone, farmer
  • Running mate: Jeremiah Workman, Iraq War veteran;
  • Restaurateur Joanna Swallen, Blystone’s original running mate, withdrew
  • Mike DeWine, incumbent Governor of Ohio (2019–present)
  • Jon Husted, incumbent Lieutenant Governor (2019–present)
  • Jim Renacci, former U.S. Representative for Ohio’s 16th congressional district (2011–2019) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018
  • Running mate: Joe Knopp, Christian film producer

B. Democratic Primary

  • John Cranley, Mayor of Cincinnati (2013–2022)
  • Running mate: Teresa Fedor, State Senator from Ohio’s 11th senatorial district
  • Nan Whaley, Mayor of Dayton (2014–2022)
  • Running mate: Cheryl Stephens, Cuyahoga County Council Vice President

Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls: Latest Polls, Jan 16

There has been a staggering lack of primary polling in the state. No polls have been conducted on the Democratic primary while only two polls have been conducted in the Republican one, however, both were conducted in May 2021.

The first poll was conducted by Harris Interactive with a sample size of 837 Likely Voters. It showed:
Jim Renacci: 47%
Mike DeWine: 29%
Joe Blystone: 12%
Undecided: 12%

The second poll was conducted by Fabrizio Lee and Associates and sponsored by Brad Parscale, Trump’s former campaign manager and someone who was advising Renacci at the time. It asked 600 GOP likely voters their preferred GOP nominee for Governor and here’s what it showed:
Jim Renacci: 42%
Mike DeWine: 34%

Both polls show DeWine’s vulnerability: despite being an incumbent governor he does not cross 34% in either poll. Jim Renacci benefits from a higher name recognition due to running state wide in 2018 for US Senate against Democrat Sherrod Brown and being seen as more pro-Trump. Trump endorsed him in his 2018 run and could do the same here.

Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls: Google Search Update,January 20

Google trends from the last 7 days show that interest in Renacci is dwarfed by the incumbent governor in the GOP Primary. He however, leads Whaley in the general election.

Jim Renacci: 10%
Mike DeWine: 89%

image 194

Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls: General Election Polls

No polls have been conducted in the race since August 2021 and none have tested Renacci against Whaley, which could be the likely general election matchup based on endorsements and primary polling. But, the ratings of prognosticators and even past trends of Ohio indicate that the Republican Party goes in with a huge advantage, especially as they won the state at presidential level by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. Republicans have also won the last 3 elections for Governor. New polls will be added here once they are released.

General election Google Trends
Jim Renacci: 10%
Mike DeWine: 85%
Nan Whaley: 4%

image 193


Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls: Latest Videos, January 20

December 29, 2021 – Ohio Governor Mike DeWine Press COVID19 Update

2012 when Obama won the state thanks to his margins in counties like this. Similar to other states, democrats have made improvements in educated places – the most educated county in the state, Delaware County, the northern suburbs of Columbus have swung to the left rapidly along with Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati which was unusually conservative for an urban county pre-Trump.

Democrats have to rely on improving margins in the North West and along Lake Erie if they want to have any chance of retaking the governor’s office. White votes remain a large majority and it’s the same case in both party’s primaries. Non-white voters are a pivotal voting bloc for Democrats.
Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls: Latest Tweets, January 20

Originally tweeted by Governor Mike DeWine (@GovMikeDeWine) on January 19, 2022.

We are grateful for our dedicated teachers throughout the state. Congratulations, Mr. Russell! @OHEducation @OberlinSchools

Originally tweeted by Jim Renacci (@JimRenacci) on January 19, 2022.

Mike DeWine says he’s opposed to Critical Race Theory but won’t lift a finger to stop it. Mike DeWine is ALL TALK, NO ACTION. As governor, I will BAN Critical Race Theory from Ohio.

Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls: Racial Demographics of Ohio

Demographic

Proportion

White American (non-Hispanic)

78.3%

African American

12.4%

Asian American

2.34%

Hispanic American

4%

Multiracial

2.62%

Others

0.34%

Racial Demographics of Ohio as per the ACS

Ohio has rapidly turned right as Democrats have lost votes in their working class strongholds in North West Ohio, especially in Mahoning and Trumbull counties. Both counties swung over 25 points in 2020 from